While it’s certainly possible that someone unseeded might win the tournament, let’s look at the the top seeds favored to win.

Number 1.  That’s Roger Federer.  On the plus side, Federer won the Australian Open and looked pretty solid doing so.  On the negative side, he got a lung infection and had to rest for two weeks to recuperate.  The good news is that he reached California a week early and has a week to train.  Without any further information, you have to make Roger the favorite even if he hasn’t won Indian Wells in some time.

Number 2.  Novak Djokovic recently won both his singles matches on clay in Davis Cup.  However, hardcourts is not clay, and he was pushed by Isner to five sets on clay.  Djokovic’s best surface is, however, hardcourts, and he generally plays well on hardcourts.

Oh, since no top seeds have played (all have byes), I don’t have any good pics of the seeds, so you get Mardy Fish.  Fish needed three sets to beat Michael Berrer who won the first set, 6-1.  Fish made the finals of Indian Wells a few years ago when he upset Roger Federer along the way and lost to Novak Djokovic in the finals.  Fish is no longer the 3rd best American behind Roddick and Blake.  That honor now goes to Sam Querrey.

Fish does, however, get to meet Djokovic again in the 2nd round.  Needless to say, Djokovic is strongly favored in that match.

Number 3. Rafael Nadal plays for the first time since retiring against Andy Murray in the Australian Open.  He claims he is in pretty good form, comparable to how he was playing prior to the Australian Open.  Nadal has not won a title since Rome though he has reached several finals including Doha this year.  Will Nadal play a riskier style so he can keep the points short?  The answer is unknown, but players are conservative.  Nadal had apparently tried something different during the World Tour Finals, but with three straight losses, he reverted to something more familiar for the Australian Open.  Nadal is the defending champ and he claims he’s playing well, but he is certainly a big question mark.  He is perhaps healthier than he has been in a while (one imagines).

Nadal is likely to face the winner of Querrey and Isner.  The likelihood is Querrey has more game for Nadal than Isner, but both guys serve huge and have big forehands.  Are either ready to beat Nadal?   Querrey, like Gulbis, is one of those guys that has bothered the big names without necessarily winning.  Querrey has beaten Roddick, but pretty much none of the other big names.  Isner is roughly in the same boat.  Can either make an impression on Rafa?  (Only one of them can meet Rafa, since Isner and Querrey are in the section of the draw to meet before Rafa).

Number 4.  Andy Murray looked in fine form playing Hopman Cup and the Australian Open.  He was moving better than ever.  However, the loss to Rog left him in tears and in the moping afterwards, he spent over a week away from tennis.  Because he lacked training, he lost some of his fitness, skipping Marseille and only playing Dubai because he was afraid of criticism skipping that tournament too.  He lost to Tipsarevic and said, in a post-match interview, that he was aiming at Indian Wells and Miami and not Dubai, and used the match to try a few things he would have tried in practice, in particular, trying to hit the ball harder.

One thing I noticed in the Hopman Cup was how well Murray was moving.  He continued to move really well during the Aussie Open.  However, in Dubai, he wasn’t moving as well.  Not bad by any stretch of the imagination, but not as well.  The question is how Murray rebounds.  I think the question marks are similar to Nadal.

Number 5. Normally, this would be Juan Martin del Potro, but he hurt his wrist during the Australian Open.  Although he reached the quarterfinals, then tried to play some more in a tournament afterwards, del Potro eventually had to rest for a month.  He expects to return at Miami, but will skip Indian Wells as he recovers.  In his place, Nikolay Davydenko is the number 5 seed.

Davydenko started the year as the hottest player on tour.  He beat Federer, del Potro, and Nadal at the World Tour Finals.  He had beaten Nadal in an earlier tournament, then beat Federer and Nadal again in Doha, then nearly beat Federer again in the Australian Open.  Davydenko lost to Soderling in Rotterdam.  Soderling is one of those guys that bothers Davydenko.  Davydenko has a game that can challenge Nadal, Federer, and even del Potro, but a guy like Soderling gives Davydenko fits.  He had to retired to Berrer in Dubai because of an injury in Rotterdam and continued to persist in Dubai.  The injury is a question mark.

Davydenko has one more problem.  Ernests Gulbis recently won Delray Beach, his first title ever, and finally has a coach.  Gulbis needed three sets to get past Swiss number 3, Marco Chiudinelli.  Is Gulbis ready to take on Davydenko.  The two have met twice, both times in 2008.  Davydenko needed two tiebreaks to beat him in Miami back then, but had a much easier time at the Olympics.  Facing Gulbis is a tough first match for Davydenko and it’s unclear if Davydenko is playing at top form now.

Number 6 is Robin Soderling.  Soderling is becoming the man of 2009.  If 2007 was Djokovic’s year, and 2008 was del Potro’s year, Soderling joined these elite players to basically come out of nowhere and move into the top ten.  Soderling has big groundies and a big serve.  He won Rotterdam, although Youzhny retired in the finals against him.  Soderling has edged ahead of Andy Roddick in the rankings who is now number 8.

Since the Australian Open, the hottest player is: Juan Carlos Ferrero.  He reached three finals in a row.  But, they were all on clay.  So while that may bode well for the clay part of the tour, it’s unclear what it means for hard courts.  And, Ferrer got to two of those finals, so Ferrer might be the second hottest player.

Of the top 6 seeds, only Soderling and Djokovic have won a title.  Djokovic defended his title in Dubai.  In most years, this would have meant more, but all the players that would have made his win interesting either weren’t there (Nadal, Federer) or didn’t get deep into the tournament (Davydenko, Murray).  Djokovic did his part.

Who are the dark horses?  Based on form, you’d probably look at Sam Querrey, possibly John Isner, and Ernests Gulbis.

Who are the favorites?  Traditionally, Djokovic and Murray have done better in Masters events and Federer hasn’t been nearly as good, saving his best tennis for the Slams.  Federer is usually good to the semis, even in a Masters event.  On form, Djokovic comes in the best, but only because he’s actually played since the Australian Open.  Federer, Nadal, and Murray are question marks.  Soderling is something of a question mark, but has played well.

Although Federer hasn’t won Indian Wells in a while, I think it says something that he came early to Indian Wells, and I make him the prohibitive favorite.  After that, I think it’s a toss-up between Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray.  Of the group, I’ll lean to Djokovic, but only because he’s played lately.  I’m a little concerned about where all three are mentally.

The seeded players had a bye (and another 16 got byes too) and don’t play until Saturday.

Tonight: Hit for Haiti, part 2.  Federer again headlines the charity event to raise money for Haiti, just as he did in the Australian Open.  Larry Ellison, CEO of Oracle, and the “owner” of Indian Wells, is providing sponsorship for the event.