This time, del Potro kept the match close.  In Rotterdam, Federer got out to a fast lead then had to hold in the second set to beat the resurgent Argentine.  In the semis, del Potro kept toe-to-toe with Federer.  Fed was actually doing a much better job of holding his serve, nary seeing a break point.  But del Potro kept fighting off break points.  So, the first set went to a tiebreak.  The second set didn’t differ much from the first set as both players held until a second set tiebreak.

del Potro must have felt his chances were good to force a third set.  He took both points on Federer’s serve.  Soon, he was up 6-2, match point.  But Federer won that point.  6-3.  Then, Federer won both his points on serve, 6-5.  Again, del Potro could serve it out.  But del Potro lost both points on serve, and was down 7-6.  Federer then served out the match 8-6 in the tiebreak to finish off the improbable tiebreak.

Federer faces Murray in the finals.  These two didn’t play each other all of 2011.  There were chances where they could have met.  Perhaps the best missed opportunity was in Paris Indoors last year.  Murray lost the Berdych in the quarterfinals, and it was Berdych that faced Federer in the quarterfinals.

Federer’s is still pushing to become number 1, despite all odds against it.  He’s one week short of tying Sampras’s record, a record he could have easily tied had he not had some bizarre losses from a few years ago.  Federer’s playing pretty well, too, especially his match over del Potro in Rotterdam.

Even so, Murray has played Federer quite well outside the Slams beating him in Toronto and Shanghai in 2010, but Federer did beat him in the year-end championship in 2010 in round-robin play.  Of the top 3, Murray probably feels most confident against Federer.  He feels he has the legs to compete against Federer and that Federer is the most inconsistent of the top 3 since he plays so aggressively.  Furthermore, Murray tends to play better in smaller events like Dubai than in Slams.

Having said that Federer’s started 2012 pretty well, all things considered.  He’s striking the ball well.  He’s not shanking like he did in 2009 and 2010.  I give the edge to Murray based on recent head-to-head and being an outdoor surface, however.