As everyone is worried whether the guys who used to beat Djokovic can figure out ways to beat Djokovic (namely, Federer and Nadal), there’s one guy who is hoping to draw some inspiration from the Serb.

That man is Andy Murray.

After all, Djokovic, who broke out in 2007 by reaching the semis of the French, the semis of Wimbledon, then the finals of the US Open, has been hovering around a ranking of 3 for four years waiting for his chance to leapfrog Federer and/or Nadal.  Djokovic had to wonder if this moment would ever happen.  This is exactly the same position Andy Murray finds himself.

Almost.

He also has to worry about Novak Djokovic, too.

Before Andy Murray tries to take lessons from Djokovic, he has to understand the magnitude of what Djokovic accomplished.  Against Federer, Djokovic found Federer’s first strike attack challenging.  Federer wants to win most points within 6-10 shots and applies pressure from the get-go.  Federer also does one thing better than Nadal.

Serve.

But Djokovic is steady enough to hit with Federer and can hit big shots too.  Djokovic lacks the heavy topspin of Nadal which is, frankly, unique to Nadal.  No one else plays like Nadal, including Djokovic, which makes it easier for Federer to play Djokovic and vice versa.  If Djokovic can get into a rhythm off the ground, he can outlast Federer until Federer makes an error.  If Federer can avoid errors, he can pressure Djokovic and win.  It’s a challenge for Federer to keep this steady as his game is inherently error-prone.

But the huge accomplishment for Djokovic is taking on Nadal.  Djokovic is one of the few players that plays Nadal basically straight-up.  He does what he does against every player, which is to move the ball around, and either attack the ball, or wait for the error.  He just has to do it better against Rafa than others.  Djokovic has shored up two weaknesses that made it a challenge to beat Nadal.  He’s improved his serve so it’s back to where it was before he began tinkering with it (to deal with a shoulder issue).  He’s also steadied out his forehand.  He can consistently play it hard and deep.

Djokovic can also attack off both sides down-the-line.  One problem Federer has with Nadal is the high shot to his backhand.  Federer typically goes back crosscourt if this happens, but he can only hit this shot reliably a few times before he hits too short a ball.  He can’t suddenly hit a down-the-line winner which is something Djokovic can do.

Indeed, the down-the-line shot (as well as his return) is a huge key to why Djokovic beats Nadal.  Nadal, more than anyone else, hits well when he’s not in perfect balance.  He can take a hard shot hit near the baseline and still muster a decent shot to keep him in the point.  But Nadal is far from comfortable when he has to do all this running.  Djokovic’s goal is to pressure him at this level of discomfort.  It takes an intense amount of concentration to keep in points when you’re being pressured this way.

Djokovic is also the only player who can play long rallies at this pace and essentially outlast Nadal.  Almost no one else can do this.  At a normal pace, Nadal will crush your shots until you feel you must attack and go for big shots.  Nadal doesn’t even mind losing a few points while you try to attack.  He knows he can get a few of these shots back, and for every winner you hit, you’ll make two errors.  Nadal, more than any other player, exerts this kind of pressure on his opponents.  If they don’t attack, he will, and he is so accurate and powerful, that you will generally lose the point.

Djokovic is the only guy who hits hard enough, often enough, accurately enough to essentially have a war of attrition with Nadal.

The question is: how does Andy Murray deal with the same opponents.  Murray has similar problems against Federer that Djokovic does.  Federer tries to play first strike tennis, and this can occasionally upset Murray.  Murray tends to win by goading opponents into errors.  He hits soft enough that he tempts players to come to net where he usually passes them.  Murray prefers to play down to his opponents.

The question is why?  I think the reason is that playing a power style is way too error prone for his liking.  Plus Murray likes to play from way back.  He hits soft enough most of the times that his opponents can attack Murray.

The problem with this strategy is against a player like Nadal.  Murray’s strokes aren’t steady enough or hard enough to bother Nadal at his usual level.  So Murray generally has to play more aggressive than usual.  Murray lacks the same confidence to hit his shots down-the-line.  He did an OK job during the semifinals.  When Murray hit down-the-line, he usually made winners, but he was as likely to miss the shot as make it since he hits a flatter ball than any of the other top 3 players.  Murray’s first serve is also a liability.  Murray generally makes about 55% of his first serves.  If he were 65% or 75% of first serves, he might pressure Nadal far more than he does.

Alas, Murray can’t rely on upsets to help him.  It used to be that events like the Australian Open lead to improbably finalists.  Think about it.  Two of Andre Agassi’s opponents in the finals of the Australian Open were Rainer Schuettler and Arnaud Clement, which were their only Slam finals.  Murray would love to play Ferrer or Soderling or Isner in a final and not play Djokovic, Nadal, or Federer along the way.  Alas, Nadal, Djokovic, and Federer have been in the finals for the last 5 years.

I think it’s too simplistic to blame Murray’s attitude.  Murray has to have lots of things going right mostly because he doesn’t play every player the same.  Forget his surly attitude that often contributes to him losing lopsided sets.  That attitude is mostly the result of being hurt by his opponent.  If Murray played every opponent like he does Nadal, maybe he would get used to this style and be able to hit it against Nadal when it matters most.  But when he decided to only use it against Nadal, that makes it much tougher for him to be successful.

Murray has to hope that the ridiculous odds of him meeting Nadal every time in the semis has to go away and that occasionally, he plays Djokovic in the semis.  Of the top three, Murray almost never plays Federer.  The last time they met was in the ATP World Tour Final in the round robin which Federer won.  Murray has met Djokovic three times.  It was a lopsided loss in Australia, a near win in Rome, and a win in Cincy.

I think most people feel that Murray needs to do a few things better.  It would help if he played aggressive against everyone.  He doesn’t do this.  Of course, it doesn’t make sense to do this against everyone since some players like the pace.  It would help if he improved the consistency of the down-the-line forehand and backhand so he can hit it reliably, much like Djokovic.  It would help if he could get his first serve more consistent, though he generally does well to hold serve off his second serve.

Would a better attitude help?  I suppose, but I think even in a perfect mindset, he needs his game at a higher level to reliably beat the top players.  Right now, his game is much like Federer in that he needs a few things to go his way to win.