2008 was a breakout year for many players.  It started with the Australian Open.  Novak Djokovic won his first Slam over surprise finalist, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.  Djokovic’s breakout year was the year before, in 2007, where he reached the semis of the French Open and Wimbledon and the finals of the US Open.  Tsonga came out of nowhere to defeat Nadal in the semis and reach his first (and only) Slam final.  Tsonga remains a fixture in the top ten.

Another Frenchman, Gilles Simon, had a big year playing well in the hard court season and reached the top ten.  Andy Murray moved into the top 4 by reaching the quarters of Wimbledon and the finals of the US Open upsetting Nadal in the semis (this will be a common theme).

Juan Martin del Potro came out of nowhere to win two ATP clay titles, then came to the US during the Olympic season (he was ranked too low to represent Argentina in the Olympics) and won Los Angeles, upsetting Andy Roddick in the finals, then won Washington DC the following week.

A year later, in 2009, he would reach the semis of the French Open and win his first and only Slam, the US Open.

del Potro would require surgery on his wrist shortly after the 2010 Australian Open and would not fully return until 2011.

Of the players not in the “big 4” (Nadal, Djokovic, Federer, Murray), del Potro is the one that’s most likely to move up into that spot.  He had been ranked as high as number 4.  He’s had success against Federer, and does well against Djokovic (see last year’s Olympic bronze medal round).  On his way up, he upset Nadal in Miami. He also thumped Nadal in the 2009 run to the US Open title.

Since he’s come back from his injury, del Potro has slowly climbed up the ranks finishing just outside the top 10 in 2011 and just inside it in 2012.  del Potro had two big nemesis during this period: Roger Federer and David Ferrer.  These two players accounted for 8 of his defeats in 2012.  Add Djokovic to the mix, and the total is 11.  This meant, for the most part, del Potro was only losing to the very best.

By the end of 2012, del Potro finally beat Federer at Basel.

In the quarterfinals of Indian Wells, del Potro was able to come down from one set to beat Andy Murray in three sets.  Although Murray lead the head to head 4-2, the two hadn’t played each other since London World Tour Finals back in 2009, so a shade over 3 years.

Djokovic came into this match having not lost a match in 2013.  His last loss was to Sam Querrey back in Paris Indoors.  Since then, Djokovic won the year-end championships, the Australian Open, and Dubai.

In the semis, Djokovic didn’t play that well.  He played steady, but didn’t dominate the match.  Djokovic won the first set after a late break.  While del Potro didn’t get broken by Murray (nor have break points against him until very late in the match), he and Djokovic exchanged 5 breaks in the second with del Potro getting 3 breaks.

The third set looked like it might go to Djokovic when he rushed to a 3-0 lead after a gruelling game to break to a 2-0 lead.  However, del Potro managed to win 5 of the next 6 games with his never-say-die attitude.

Djokovic found it hard to dominate rallies with del Potro playing good controlled tennis never going for wild shots at random times as some players like to do (say, Berdych).

Earlier in the day, Berdych lost to Nadal.  Berdych seemed a little nervous playing Nadal who made a habit of playing lots of shots behind Berdych who has a tough time changing directions.  Nadal won the first set, 6-4.  Although Nadal got a break in the second, Berdych recovered with a break of his own, but then Berdych got broken again.  He seemed unable to solve Nadal’s pinpoint precision off the ground and struggled a bit off the ground.

So that leaves an intriguing final.  del Potro won the US Open back in 2009 by beating Nadal and Federer back to back.  That was considered a huge achievement.  But he may be able to top that by beating Murray, Djokovic, and possibly Nadal, in the same tournament.  The odds are somewhat against him.  In particular, del Potro has had to play two 3-setters and he played the late match against Djokovic.  The question is whether he’ll have the energy to play Nadal.

For that reason, I have to favor Nadal in the finals.  If del Potro were a bit less beaten up, I think he could give Nadal a good challenge.  It will be interesting to see what happens.