On paper, Andy Murray’s loss to David Ferrer looks like an upset.  In practice, perhaps not so much.  Ferrer is ranked 17th in the world, but has been ranked as high as number 4 in the world, as recently as 2 years ago.  Ferrer is, what’s known in the tennis parlance, as a clay court specialist.  Of the tournaments Ferrer has played so far, only 5 have been on anything besides clay.

Five seems like a lot, but they include Auckland (where he lost to Clement), the Australian Open (five set loss in 2nd round to Marcos Baghdatis), Johannesburg (semifinal loss to Stephane Robert), Indian Wells (James Blake, 2nd round loss), and Miami (4th round loss to Nadal).  Three of these tournaments were required.

In the meanwhile, he’s played Buenos Aires (lost to Ferrero in the finals), Acapulco (beat Ferrero in the finals), Monte Carlo (semifinal loss to Nadal) and Barcelona (semifinal loss to Verdasco).  When Ferrer plays on clay, other opponents’ strengths, such as their serve, are reduced, and Ferrer’s strength (movement and steady play) are amplified.

When you count total match wins on clay, Ferrer leads, primarily because he went to play clay during the lead up to Indian Wells and Miami, where players like Nadal chose to skip the tournaments (to recover).

Andy Murray has never been a great clay courter.  Indeed, until 2009, he struggled to get past the 3rd round of any clay tournament he’d been in.  Murray had some measure of success last year, reaching the semifinals of Monte Carlo, but he lost early in Rome (to Juan Monaco), and rebounded some to get to the quarters of Madrid (losing to del Potro).  Murray reached the quarters of the French Open, which was one of his better results in a Slam.  Indeed, if you were to bet which player would do the best among Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray at the French, few would have picked Murray (Nadal lost in the 4th round, and Djokovic in the 3rd round).

Ferrer’s the kind of guy that gives a player like Murray fits.  He’s quick, he hits back hard shots well, and so he makes you hit more shots.  Murray’s approach to the match appeared to be trying to hit harder than Ferrer, and mixing that up with slices.  At one point, Murray hit a series of slices on forehands and backhands, over and over again.   It goes to show that the pros can play weird styles and have done so in practice, but they rarely rear their head in practice.

It turns out Murray had broken a string, and with the tension loss, he had to resort to slicing just to keep the ball in play.  Most players quickly drop shot or come to net to end the point quickly.  Ferrer, for his part, did well to keep playing the ball showing that the top players can handle all sorts of weirdness when they play, even if they hardly ever see the style of play.

On the plus side, Murray was able apply some pace to the ball, and even save a number of break points.  On the other hand, Murray only had 3 opportunities to break and didn’t break on any of them.  Murray complained that he wasn’t serving well nor returning well.   Murray’s first serve percentage was a paltry 41%, while Ferrer kept his serve at 78%.  Had Murray kept his serve at a respectable 60%, he might have held serve more easily.  Murray has been trying to improve the pace of his first serve for a while now, but his results resemble more of the diminutive Michael Chang, who tried to do the same thing, but sacrificed first serve percentage for speed.  Was the trade worth it?

Murray’s performance here was much better than against Kohlschreiber.  He was in many of the rallies, but just couldn’t outsteady Ferrer.

Nadal continued to roll beating Victor Hanescu, 6-3, 6-2.  Hanescu had break chances but converted none while Nadal broke Hanescu three times.

In the quarterfinals, Ernests Gulbis will face Feliciano Lopez.  Gulbis looked tired from today’s match while Lopez didn’t have to play a point because Ljubicic retired after the warmups.  Lopez leads 1-0 in head-to-head.  They met on hardcourts last year in Stockholm, an easy win for Lopez.  Arguably, Gulbis is a far different player then as now.  Still, Gulbis’s training will be put to the test.  Gulbis had to play a long 3-setter to beat Volandri.  Lopez is still a tough clay courter with a big forehand and serve, basically Verdasco-lite.

Rafael Nadal will play Stanislas Wawrinka.  Wawrinka’s best results at a Masters 1000 are at Rome where he reached the finals 2 years ago against Djokovic (Nadal was upset by Juan Carlos Ferrero).  Wawrinka has been having another good tournament.  However, Nadal has never lost to Wawrinka and leads their head-to-head, 4-0.  Wawa’s best chances are generally on faster surfaces, but he’s played Rafa tough on clay, with a 6-4, 7-5 loss in Stuttgart in 2007.  Rafa has been playing solid tennis, not nearly as dominating as Monte Carlo, but not really struggling either.  Wawrinka had a solid win over Robin Soderling to get to this point, so one hopes he can keep the match entertaining.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga takes on David Ferrer.  The two have never met.  It’s difficult to predict who will win.  Tsonga hits harder, but Ferrer is quick.  Unlike Murray, Tsonga at least knows how to play on clay, and his flashiness might work.  Ferrer should still be favored somewhat given his clay court prowess.

Finally, in a replay of the Monte Carlo semifinals, Verdasco will play Djokovic once again in the quaterfinals.  Verdasco crushed Djokovic the last time they met, winning 2 and 2.  However, Djokovic had won their last 5 encounters prior to that.  Arguably, that was simply a bad match by Djokovic, who is prone to poor play.  Djokovic does seem to have improved his play quite a bit since getting on clay.  I expect Verdasco to be a bit fatigued (though he is in very good shape) and Djokovic to win this match.

Semifinal predictions: Lopez vs Nadal, Djokovic vs Ferrer.   This would be 3 Spaniards in 4.  I would like Gulbis to win to finally break through, but I wonder if his fitness is a liability.

They had some video that showed Nadal sitting in the audience during some match fiddling with his bandages.  Nadal’s hands look like a mess, but then so did Borg’s who taped his hands to avoid blisters.  I’m guessing Nadal puts up with a fair bit of pain/annoyance.