Sometime in 2011, during Djokovic’s historic win streak and his ascendancy to number 1, many tennis pundits felt Federer would never get back to number 1, would never win another Slam, or if he did, it would be a one-off.  Federer was edging to 30.  Federer kept saying that it was ridiculous to talk about his game in this way or that, and to give him time.

The end of 2011 lead to a quest many could not have forseen: Roger Federer’s return to number 1 and another Slam title.  How did he do it?  First, of course, he needed help.  If Djokovic had a 2012 like he did in 2011, then there was no way.  Djokovic won 3 of 4 Slams that year and won 5 Masters 1000 titles.  He beat Nadal again and again and again.  Federer needed both Djokovic to come to Earth and for Nadal to work had and learn to beat Djokovic.

After the US Open, Andy Murray started playing the Asian swing and won Bangkok, Tokyo, and Shanghai.  He proclaimed that he wanted to end the year number 3, ahead of Roger Federer.  Federer was defending quite a few points, including winning the year-end championship undefeated.  Murray, meanwhile, was not defending nearly as much.  Murray was planning to play Basel, but withdrew after muscle spasms, and then he was upset by Berdych in Paris.  He was injured in the year-end final, so any chance of Murray making it to 3 were hampered by weird and real injuries.

But, credit Roger Federer for doing his part.  He won Basel.  He won Paris for the first time.  He won the year-end championship, undefeated.  He was helped by Djokovic being injured in the process of winning the US Open.  Djokovic did not play well again until he reclaimed the Australian Open title in 2012.

Federer’s win streak continued in 2012.  He reached the semis of the Australian Open (losing to Rafa), but then won at Rotterdam (an event he hadn’t played in more than half a decade), won Dubai, won Indian Wells.  He lost early in Miami to Roddick, but he had lost somewhat early the year before.  Then, he won in Madrid and reached the semis of Rome and the semis of the French Open and was a finalist at Halle.  All of these wins and near-wins accumulated Roger a ton of points outside the Slams.

With an early loss by Nadal at Wimbledon, but key wins by Nadal at the French, Rome, and Monte Carlo over Djokovic, the top-ranked Serb was losing ground, and that left Federer with a slim chance to regain number 1: win Wimbledon.  And he did so in magnificent fashion, beating Djokovic in the semis and Murray in the finals.

Everyone felt Federer was back, and this was less than a year ago.  The sky was the limit.

2012 was huge for Federer because it was an Olympic year, and in two previous attempts, he had come up empty handed (though the time before that, he just missed the bronze medal).  Federer wanted the gold, and short of that, any medal.  The key match for Federer was getting past del Potro, which he did in a marathon match in the third set that may have left him less than fresh heading to the finals where Andy Murray dominated on home soil at Wimbledon.

By 2013, Federer hit all the milestones needed to trigger a rule seemed tailor made for him.  He had been active for a certain number of years, won a certain number of matches, and was minimally a certain age.  He was no longer required to play any Masters 1000 events.  To that end, Federer began cutting his schedule back.  He chose not to play in Miami (required for most) or Monte Carlo (optional for top 30 players).  Due to this, he came into Madrid rather rusty, and lost to Nishikori, and although he reached the finals of Rome, he nearly lost 61 61.  Were it not for a small letdown by Rafa and some superb hitting, that would have been the score.

Many people, even Federer fans, felt that was it.  Nadal is invincible on clay.  Federer is getting older.  He can’t compete any more.  If asked, Federer is likely to say it’s silly.  Wait a few more months when he’s played more events, and then see how he’s doing.

At this point, I’d have to say the same.  On the one hand, I do think Nadal and Djokovic are ahead of Federer and that his chances of beating either are getting somewhat slim.  On the other, I don’t feel Federer is playing his best now, or at least, at a high level, and even without playing at a high level, he’s still beating players he should beat.

I’d wait 2-3 months to see how he fares before deciding to say that Federer is done for.