Well, the final that people were hoping for, but thinking they might not get, might actually happen.  At the beginning of Madrid, Roger Federer had lost to Albert Montanes, a player not even in the top 20, in the semifinals of Estoril.  Federer’s game in Estoril looked pretty much liked it did in Rome, which was subpar.  How did Madrid suddenly rejuvenate Federer?  Makes you wonder how much Federer wanted to win his earlier matches.  His backhand, which was routinely being hit out, are now falling in, as is his forehand.  It’s almost as if he didn’t want his opponents to see his current game.

David Ferrer played Andy Murray and showed that Andy still has more to learn on clay.  Ferrer often camps out on the left side of the court taking everything he can with his forehand, which he either hits inside out or down the line.  Meanwhile, Murray generally feels a lot better with his backhand so he was content trading blows with his backhand to Ferrer’s forehand.

There are two problems plaguing Murray’s game.  One is his first serve percentage.  Many times, he finds himself between 40 and 50%.  He never seems to reach the dizzying heights of 60 or 70%.  One hesitates to wonder where Murray would be if he could hit his serves with the regularity of that other Andy, Andy Roddick, who routinely hits 70% first serves.

Today he was at 50%.  He had 15 break points and saved 11, which is quite a lot.  To be fair, Ferrer got a few lucky shots where he clipped a line there, hit a net there, or saw Murray break strings twice at key points in the game.

Murray’s other problem is his fear of the down-the-line shot.  Murray loves hitting crosscourt, but he seems unable to pull the trigger to thread a down-the-line backhand.  This is one reason Novak Djokovic has such a good backhand–his ability to hit it down the line.  Because Murray was loathe to do this, Ferrer could sit camped out on the left side and trade blows with Murray knowing full well that Murray wouldn’t try to belt it down-the-line.  The few times he did it (very rare), he won the point.

Murray’s begun to realize, on clay of all surfaces, the need to put a point away.  Ferrer is always looking for ways to close out the point.  If he didn’t do it by mixing up the directions of his shots, he resorted to the drop shot.  Given how much Andy Murray likes the shot, he seemed vulnerable to this tactic.

This leads to a semifinal that seems anti-climactic.  On the one hand, Rafael Nadal will play Nicolas Almagro.  Nadal has a 5-0 lead over his fellow Spaniard, including fairly easy wins on clay, although the two haven’t played on clay in a while.  Almagro has power, but probably not enough game to bother Nadal.

The other semifinal pits Roger Federer and David Ferrer.  Federer has a 9-0 record against Ferrer.  He’s going to hope that his first serve percentage is pretty high because that will help with holding serve.  In his last 2 matches, he’s served much better.  His game often goes as his serve.  Federer also does something Murray doesn’t do as much which is run around his backhand to hit an inside-in forehand.  The threat to do this means that if Ferrer camps out on the ad court, he will leave himself vulnerable.

In any case, tournament organizers and fans are hoping the final will be Nadal vs. Federer.  It’s hard to believe but it’s been a year since the two met, at the Madrid final.  If this happens (and the likelihood is Federer will be the one to crumble if the dream final doesn’t happen), it is likely to be more in Nadal’s favor.  Last year, Nadal played a marathon match to beat Djokovic in 3 long sets which the Serbian had match points.  It’s hard to imagine Almagro pushing Nadal anywhere near this hard.  Nadal should not be tired going into the final this year.

This should be an interesting test to see how Federer is doing.  We know he does well against more powerful, but more inconsistent players.  Now to see how he fares against a quick player.  Ferrer had troubled him in the past, but has never won.  Even so, Federer is slowly losing to players he used to have O-fer records against.  If Federer played like he did against Gulbis, he has a pretty good chance of beating Ferrer once again.  Federer tends to gain confidence as a tournament goes deeper.

Short of an injury, it’s too hard to imagine Nadal being pushed much by Almagro.  Almagro has a good serve and hits hard, but so does Verdasco.   So, that semi seems anti-climactic.

Anyway, the Madrid Open heads to its conclusion and we’ll see what happens.