Sometimes you need a perfect storm to beat Rafael Nadal.

Nadal had taken a few weeks off after Wimbledon, skipping the Davis Cup tie against the US to rest, recover, and figure out what he might do against the new number one, Novak Djokovic.

Nadal often comes back a little rusty when he takes a long break, but he prefers not to play any earlier than Canada to avoid playing too much on hardcourts.  In any case, he’s often played indifferently at Canada and at Cincinnati and still done fine at the US Open.

For example, last year, Nadal reached the semifinals of Toronto, a respectable result, and lost to a hard-hitting Murray.  In Cincinnati, he lost to Marcos Baghdatis who had a victory against Federer earlier in the year.

Despite this, Nadal went on to win the US Open.

Even so, Nadal didn’t expect to have a tough time with Ivan Dodig.

The two had only played once, with Nadal winning easily on clay this year in Barcelona.

Things appeared to be going Nadal’s way with breaks in the first set leading to an easy 6-1 set.

But Dodig had a few things go his way.  First, like some of his fellow Croatians, Dodig has a huge serve.  And he needed it.  He hit 19 aces in the match, and some at very key moments to hold.

Second, Nadal’s serve, so often hit at about 70% dipped to 50% in the second and third sets.  Time and again, Nadal missed first serves making him look more like Andy Murray than himself.  While Nadal’s first serve isn’t exactly a bomb, the spin gives opponents lots of trouble.  While Dodig didn’t break Nadal until the third set, it seemed to demoralize Nadal that he was missing so often.

Third, Dodig served and volleyed at key moments to stay in the match.  Fourth, Dodig went for his shots, most often a huge crosscourt backhand.  Everyone knows that you need to play Rafa aggressively.  If you play too passively, he will eventually dominate the point, and put you on defense.  But few players have Dodig’s weapons to pull it off.  Where most players generally win by outhitting Nadal off the ground (and hoping for Nadal errors), Dodig was able to use his huge serve to hold serve.

The second set was pretty much on serve.  Nadal did get a break of serve early on, to lead 3-1 but the resilient Dodig recovered the break and kept the second set on serve as it went to tiebreak.  Dodig was able to keep ahead enough in the tiebreak and secure it 7-5 to push the match into the third set.

Despite the surprise of Dodig claiming the second set, the third set looked like it was heading Nadal’s way as it often does.  Nadal got a break early on, but Dodig was able to come back to tie it up again.  Then, Nadal broke again, but Dodig again came back.  Dodig seemed like he was struggling to hold serve, but held enough at the end to force the tiebreak.

Dodig got an early mini-break but managed to get it back.  Down, 5-6, Dodig hit a hard forehand and then followed it up with an ace to get to match point.  Nadal again missed a first serve, then it went to a rally  Nadal hit an angled forehand, and Dodig hit a hard crosscourt backhand on the line to win the tiebreak, 7 points to 5.

Was Nadal playing well?  Not especially.  But Nadal can win matches like this because opponents make mistakes when they play this aggressive.  To be fair, Dodig didn’t play sublime tennis either.  He just hit enough good shots at the right time to win the match.  He made errors too, such as ill-advised drop shots, but he continued to go after these shots and they began to pay off, just like his forays to the net where he initially was being passed, but kept with the plan and started winning points.

Ivan Dodig will now face Janko Tipsarevic who beat Fernando Verdasco.  The top two seeds are out leaving the bottom half of the draw pretty open.

Earlier in the evening, Ernests Gulbis beat Michael Llodra when Llodra retired 1-0 down in the second set.  Llodra had been getting cream applied to his forearm.

Isner, who beat Troicki last week in Washington, lost to Troicki in three sets.  Marin Cilic, who has been looking for a good victory, beat Juan Martin del Potro in straight sets.  Although del Potro seems to be playing well, he still seems to lack the intimidating play that left players breathless chasing his forehand.  Delpo still needs to work on his confidence and getting back to the kind of ball striking that lead him to a US Open.

The top remaining seeds don’t have it easy.  Djokovic will face Marin Cilic in the next round.  This is probably better than del Potro, but maybe not!  Federer will have to player that ousted him at Wimbledon, namely, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

The last match of the evening, which will start at 11 PM, will be a replay of a recent Davis Cup match with Mardy Fish playing Feliciano Lopez.