A year and a half ago, Andy Murray was in a situation very much like Juan Martin del Potro.  Although he was seen as a talented player, he often struggled finishing matches.  Most tennis players are quite fit as athletes, but you need to be at a different level of fitness to win in today’s game which requires not only speed and endurance, but the ability to handle the heat.

It’s not surprising that Roger Federer trains in the heat of Dubai, or Andy Roddick trained in the heat of Florida and Texas.  Although the weekend player might skip a 2 hour session in 100 degree heat, professional players need to manage it.

When the Rogers Cup started, everyone looked to this tournament, with its star-studded field, as the litmus test of the best in men’s tennis.  Everyone wanted to know how the top players were faring.

The top four players chose not to play any tournaments between Wimbledon and Montreal.  That included Federer, who was off being a new father, Nadal, who was recovering from knee tendinitis, Murray, who was the only one that was keeping to his normal schedule of training in the UK and Miami, and Djokovic, who was, well, who knows what Novak was up to?

The next two players, Andy Roddick and Juan Martin del Potro, were playing tournaments.  Roddick had hoped to play most of the US Open Series, but due to a hip issue suffered at the end of Wimbledon, Roddick chose to skip Indianapolis and Los Angeles.  del Potro also skipped Los Angeles despite being defending champion (indeed, he failed to defend 3 titles, the 3 titles that put the tennis world on notice that a new talent was on the rise).

Andy Murray had said that he was still feeling pretty good about his game and that his results at the French and at Wimbledon, while noteworthy, were not his strongest focus.  Murray has always preferred the hard courts and so Montreal would show what shape Murray was in.  While some players struggled with tight matches in the early rounds, Murray had a pretty easy couple of rounds.

His first tough opponent was Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.  Players like Tsonga, who can hit with pace at any time, give Murray trouble.  Murray relies on change of paces, a tough first serve, a great return to win matches.  Because he doesn’t hit pure power, players can take it to Murray, if they are on.  But somehow Murray finds ways to win.   He broke Tsonga twice in the first set of their semifinals match (Tsonga also broke Murray), and the two went to a tiebreak in the second that went 10-8 to Murray.

This victory combined with del Potro’s second straight victory over Nadal allowed Murray to become number 2 in the world.  This surprising change in rankings leaves open the possibility that Nadal and Federer might meet in the semifinals of a major event.

del Potro followed up his thumping of Nadal with another three set thriller against Roddick.  Much like last week’s event in DC, Roddick started off well and had a break and won the first set.  del Potro came back strong in the second breaking Roddick twice on the strength of his monster forehand.  Roddick then hit a few nervous forehands at 5-all in the third and gave the opening del Potro needed.  del Potro served fantastic to win the match.

There were people who figured del Potro was going to make Murray his next victim.  del Potro has improved several parts of his game, most notably his serve and his forehand.  One can make a strong case that del Potro’s forehand is now the biggest in all of tennis, bigger than Fernando Gonzalez.  His serve, Brad Gilbert claims, is in the top 5 of big servers, except unlike some of the big servers (say, Karlovic), del Potro has a game to back it up.  del Potro showed incredible defense against Nadal and Roddick, chasing down shots that kept him in points that he seemed desperately out of before he finally won it.

Ah, the finals.  Much like Djokovic, del Potro’s fitness has been a bit suspect.  del Potro looked like he was suffering in the heat last week against Andy Roddick but managed to keep his head and heart in the game and squeeze out a victory.  When del Potro last met Andy Murray on hard courts, which was at the US Open, he also suffered from fatigue.  Murray kept feeding junk to del Potro who found it difficult to play power shots of no-pacers.

The finals, much like DC, was hot.  If there’s one place that Murray has improved, it’s his serve, and it let him hold serve somewhat easier than del Potro.  The two held serve until the tiebreak, where del Potro used his power to take the first set tiebreak, 7-3.

In the second set, Murray managed to break del Potro, but del Potro decided to hit harder and took a break back from Murray.  By the second set, one could tell del Potro was having issues with the heat.  Credit del Potro for continuing to win games despite having problems with fitness.  Murray was complaining to the umpire that del Potro was using too much time between points to recover.  del Potro had to know that he needed to win the second set, or he’d not be able to hold out for a third.

del Potro would tank games where Murray looked like he was a bit ahead.  If Murray was up 30-0, then del Potro pretty much didn’t play the game.  It was pointed out that Sampras used to do this as well to conserve energy, relying on his huge serve to hold and waiting for his moments to get a break.  They contrasted this attitude with Nadal who tries on every point.  However, as the second set went to tiebreak, del Potro had called for a trainer.  Despite this respite, it wasn’t enough and Murray won the second set rather handily 7-3.

del Potro then took a rather lengthy break between sets, which they have been allowing recently (that is, allowing players to leave the court between the 2nd and 3rd set).  Murray had to wait patiently as del Potro finally showed up.  Again, despite the break, del Potro looked winded.  He was hitting hard, but missing shots that had gone in only half an hour earlier.  He was no longer chasing down shots, and pretty much beat a guy who had nothing more in his tank.

Murray cruised to a 6-1 third set, and yet another Masters win.

What’s the conclusion?  Hard to say.  Most people are going to say that yes, Murray is a very good player, but without the big game of someone like del Potro, then a player like del Potro is eventually going to be at the top of the game.  Most people figure Federer just had a bad meltdown, so it will be interesting to see how he rebounds at Cincinnati.  Recall that Federer had problems heading into the French and that he plays better in best of 5 sets.  Nadal is a big question mark too.  Nadal doesn’t seem like he’s playing all that badly, actually.  He still has room to improve, but is two more weeks enough?  How will he fare in best of 5 matches?

Despite the loss, many people are likely to look at del Potro as the guy people least want to face at the US Open.  He’s got the kind of game that can trouble any of the top 5.  He’s beaten Roddick twice in two weeks.  He’s beaten Nadal the last two times they’ve met.  He beat Murray on clay in Madrid.  He’s given Federer everything he can handle.  The key question is fitness.  He really doesn’t have that much time to get fit between now and the US Open.  If the Open is cool, then del Potro is dangerous.  If there’s heat, then the question is whether he can handle the heat.

And Murray? You never know about Murray.  He’s the guy everyone wonders how he wins, and yet wins.  Most people count him out (except the Brits who are thrilled to no end).  He’s become the Wilander of this decade, a guy that uses his head to win.