The NCAA Division 1 Men’s Basketball Championships, or “March Madness”, as it’s often called, has been pondering increasing the number of teams from 65 (don’t ask why it’s not 64) to 96.  They only have to look at Indian Wells to see a 96 person draw with the top 32 players get a bye and the remaining 64 play one additional round to whittle down to 32 before the seeds get into action.

Technically, Indian Wells only has 16 seeds, so the remaining 16 are given byes, but are otherwise randomly distributed (one imagines) in appropriate slots in the draw.

Indian Wells released its draw yesterday and the question was, at it usually is: is Nadal on the same side of the draw as Federer.  Although there have been several occasions where this could have occurred, most notably, in the 2009 US Open, Nadal has yet to be placed in the same half as Federer.  Nadal’s ranking is currently 3 in the world.  He had dipped to number 4, but because Murray failed to defend Rotterdam (as did Nadal), he lost more points for winning the title than Nadal did for making the finals, and that difference caused his point total to dip below Nadal’s.  Murray then went on to have a worse result in Dubai (failing to reach the quarterfinals, which he did last year), and again, lost ground to Nadal.  All the while, Nadal was resting and training to play Indian Wells.

For those who feel the Slams should be streamlined more–the Australian Open moved closer to the French Open, the pros might disagree.  Because there is such a long period between the Australian Open and the French, a player that may have sustained injuries or wish to recover from their efforts, now gets a chance to do so.  Indeed, pros might like it if the Slams were spread 3 months apart to give them the best chance to get healthy and ready for each tournament.

Frankly, because the pros took so much time between Australia and now, it’s difficult to guess who is in form and who is not.  When a player is playing every week, you know the form won’t change too dramatically unless it’s due to injury or fatigue.  When a player takes many weeks off, they could work on their game bringing out something different that you didn’t expect.  Such a change used to be pretty rare, but these days, you see some marked changes.  del Potro beefed up his serve as did Nadal.  Nadal added a slice backhand (a few years ago).  Federer has improved the pace on his backhand.

So any predictions are guesses, more so than usual, because some players, like Nadal or Federer are not playing warm-ups prior to Indian Wells.

Now to the draw.  In Federer’s eighth, Federer has Baghdatis, Robredo, and Stepanek.  Assuming Fed is in good shape, he should be strongly favored to get out of this section.  In Roddick’s eighth (which is the same quarter as Federer), is Tipsarevic, Melzer, and Monfils.  Roddick’s form is unclear.  He won one tournament but lost to Querrey recently.  Monfils would be the tough guy in Roddick’s section.  Monfils might play Gasquet in the second round.  Nalbandian is playing as a wildcard and will play Melzer in the 2nd round if he reaches there.  Nalbandian recently won a Davis Cup match with Juan Martin del Potro and Juan Monaco unable to play due to injury.

In Andy Murray’s eighth, there is Igor Andreev, Ivo Karlovic, and David Ferrer.  Karlovic was in the Delray final losing to Gulbis and is always dangerous, but Murray’s big strength is return of serve.  Ferrer has been pretty hot, but on clay, reaching two consecutive clay finals, one in Brazil, one in Acapulco, winning one and losing one to compatriot, Juan Carlos Ferrero.  Almagro and Seppi are dangerous players in this section.

In Robin Soderling’s eighth (same quarter as Murray), there is Lopez, Montanes, and Tsonga.  Llodra is in this section too.  Soderling and Tsonga ought to be the class of this eighth.

In Davydenko’s eighth, there is Troicki, Berdych, and Verdasco.  Davy might meet Gulbis in the 3rd round.  Gulbis recently won Delray Beach, his first title.  He is now being coached by Hernan Gumy, who was Safin’s coach just before he retired, and Gumy appears to have done wonders with Gulbis’s game.  Davydenko should be worried about this, especially since he’s been recuperating from a wrist injury.

In Nadal’s eighth (same quarter as Davydenko), there is Isner, Querrey, and Benneteau.  Isner and Querrey would potentially meet in the round of 16.  Both have big serves.  Querrey won their last match against each other back in Memphis, but it was close.  Nadal says he’s back to being in the same form as he was back at the Australian, which means he’s probably hitting pretty well.  Expect Nadal to have a tough one between Isner-Querrey winner, but to get through to possibly play Davydenko (although I think Gulbis could finally do well enough to meet Nadal).  It will be interesting to see if this is Gulbis’s breakout tournament, especially since people have been saying how talented he is for years.

Cilic’s eighth includes Bellucci, Monaco, and Ferrero.  Ferrero has been the hottest player since the Australian Open, but his streak of three consecutive finals and two titles all came on clay.  Even so, Ferrero can play on hard courts (Roddick beat him for his only Slam).

In Djokovic’s section, there’s Kohlschreiber, Ljubicic, and Simon.  Simon has played poorly for over a year now.  Is he ready to play good tennis again?  In one of those draws that makes you wonder how random the draw is, Taylor Dent and Ryan Harrison, who recently played doubles together (and lost to the Bryan brothers in Memphis), play each other in the first round.  Is Harrison ready to take a leap up the rankings?  Or does the veteran Dent have a few tricks up his sleeve.  Both have big serves and big games, but Dent has never made a “dent” in the rankings.

Djokovic may play Kohlschreiber, the guy that beat him at last year’s French.  Djokovic has been playing good tennis lately, winning Dubai and reaching the semis of Rotterdam.  However, he returned to Serbia to win a critical five setter against John Isner, a match which saw Novak smashing racquets.  Sometimes you wonder where Djokovic’s head is.

In the top half of the draw, Federer should get to the quarters.  Roddick should get there too though he has to get past Monfils, who may not get there, depending on how Gasquet plays.  Murray should reach the quarters too, but may have to play one of Karlovic or Ferrer, with both having played well in recent weeks.  Soderling might be hard pressed to reach the quarters because of Tsonga.  However, he does have a 2-0 record over the Frenchman and hasn’t been pressed too hard in either victory.

Davydenko should be favored to get to the quarters, but that’s assuming he can get past Gulbis.  Gulbis is my dark-horse to get out of that section due to his recently win at Delray Beach.

Nadal will have to face (potentially) either Isner or Querrey.  Querrey has the kind of game that kind bother Nadal (and so does Isner), but it’s hard to see either beating Nadal.  Still, Nadal hasn’t played great tennis this year.  His final appearance in Doha was his best result.

Cilic should make his quarter, with Ferrero being a possible challenge.  One wonders if his clay success will translate to hardcourt success.

Djokovic should reach the quarters too, but Kohlschreiber might pose problems (Djokovic may play Fish in the 2nd round).

On form, Djokovic is playing the best tennis on hardcourts (Ferrero and Ferrer would be playing the best claycourt tennis), but with Federer and Nadal not having played lately (and Murray having mailed in his performance at Dubai), it’s tough to say.

Another exciting week and a half of tennis coming up!

Oh yes, there is another “Hit for Haiti” this Friday at Indian Wells to raise money for Haiti relief efforts.  Roger Federer spearheaded the Hit for Haiti just before the start of the Australian Open recruiting players like Nadal, Clijsters, Djokovic, and others to have a fun time hitting around, with proceeds from the event going to Haiti relief efforts.   This benefit is going to be televised on Tennis Channel.  Visit their website for details.