2011 starts very differently than 2010.  In particular, there are a few names that were nearly no-shows last year, and their presence makes thing more interesting.

Consider the following names that were absent or at least irrelevant for much of 2010: Nikolay Davydenko (a few months), Gilles Simon, Ivo Karlovic, Radek Stepanek, and, of course, Juan Martin del Potro.

Although del Potro managed to win a tight 3-setter against Feliciano Lopez, he was unable to get past German, Florian Mayer, who has been on the tour some number of years and is close to regaining his high of about 33 in the world.  Fatigue may have had a lot to do with del Potro’s second round performance.  This suggests del Potro won’t make a deep run in the Australian Open.  Getting to the third round would be a huge accomplishment for Delpo.  Even getting out of the first round could be tricky.

With Gilles Simon having had an injury last year, he’s only now getting back to the kind of form that got him into the top 10.  His main concern will be landing in a safe part of the draw.  He is not guaranteed a seed, and mostly likely won’t get one since he is ranked 41.  This means he could meet a seeded player in the first round, and has about a 1 in 3 chance of doing so.

Much like Nikolay Davydenko’s return last year that lead him out of the top ten, Gulbis did not fare well when he returned back off his injury at the French Open (coincidentally, Davydenko’s last match before taking time off was against Gulbis, a match Dayvdenko won in Indian Wells).  However, Gulbis appears to be playing better, having lost to Nadal last week, and now in the semifinals of Sydney.  The question is whether he’s played too much, or whether it’s good preparation for the Aussie Open.

Florian Mayer and Victor Troicki round out the semifinalists at Sydney.

The other big question is: which top 4 seed gets to have Andy Murray, who is the fifth seed.  Murray would probably be happy with Djokovic or Soderling.  Sure, he’s had success against Nadal and Federer, but when Nadal and Federer are on, Murray has to do a lot of work, and it would be easier for him to take a different route.  Having said that, last year, he played Nadal in the quarters, and rather than play del Potro, he ended up playing Cilic in the semifinals.

Murray slipped to fifth because Soderling won Brisbane and just barely passed Murray to move up to number 4.  Murray chose not to play an ATP event this year (just as he didn’t last year) and played the Hopman Cup instead.  Murray’s goals have been to work on his serve.  It’s questionable whether he’s achieved his goal or not.

Nikolay Davydenko is playing good tennis once again, though he is probably not at the level he was last year at the same time where he gave Roger Federer all he could handle.

Speaking of Federer, he’s likely to be the favorite to win the Australian Open given his good form since the US Open.  However, he did lose to Nadal in the Abu Dhabi exhibition.  Although it is an exhibition, the players do seem to play it somewhat earnestly.

Soderling is likely to do far better than last year.  Indeed, with Soderling’s first round loss last year, he stands to gain some ground on Andy Murray who has finalist points to defend.

How will Djokovic and Murray do?  Djokovic played in Perth at the Hopman Cup, which was fairly hot and seemed to fare fine.  It may be, with all the rains that hit Brisbane, the temperatures are not nearly as hot in Melbourne as they typically are.  In any case, I think Djokovic should do well, and even does well when he’s not been 100% (having reached the quarterfinals the last few years).

Murray won all his singles matches in the Hopman Cup.  I think Murray is trying to do two things well.  First, his serve.  Second, his forehand.  Murray is what I call a “strongly crosscourt” player, that is, a guy that loves to hit crosscourt and is nervous about going up the line.  The only other top player that is even more worried about going line is Andy Roddick.  Roddick prefers for his opponents to make an error rather than him go for a winner.  He used to be less afraid, but then he used to make more mistakes.  He would love to be like Soderling, a power hitter than can hit 3-4 hard shots in a row.

With the return of Stepanek and Karlovic and Tsonga and even Gulbis playing good tennis, I think the field is tougher than it was in 2011 (to be fair, I think Karlovic and Stepanek played last year–indeed, they did, and in the first round at that!).

And, how will Rafa do?  He was ill in Doha, and that probably affected his results.  Nadal must be thanking his lucky stars that he got sick two weeks before the Australian Open rather than at the Australian Open, but did this affect his preparation for the Open?  I’ll give Rafa the benefit of the doubt and say that the fever was something he got over and he’ll be ready to play the Australian Open, trying for his fourth Slam in a row.

There should be an event to raise money for the flood victims in Brisbane called “Hit for Relief”.  Since it affects Australia, it is being put under the banner of some Aussies, I believe, Patrick Rafter and Sam Stosur.  Many of the participants in “Hit for Haiti” including Federer and Nadal are expected to participate.

Let’s wait to see how the draw pans out!  (I think it’s actually out in about 25 minutes at 9:45 AM Australia time).