Roger Federer might point to his match in Indian Wells where he lost to Marcos Baghdatis in three sets as the first of a series of disappointments.  He went to Miami and lost Tomas Berdych after being up match point.  He went to Rome and lost to Ernests Gulbis in the 2nd round.  He went to Estoril and lost to Albert Montanes in the semis.  Then, in Madrid he made the finals against Nadal and lost to him.  At the French, he lost to Soderling.  At Halle, to Lleyton Hewitt.  At Wimbledon, to Berdych again.  And, last week, at Toronto, he lost to Andy Murray.

Despite all these losses, Federer was generally favored to beat Marcos Baghdatis.  Baghdatis had to work hard to get to the semifinals and had to dig deep to beat Rafael Nadal.  It’s difficult to beat both Nadal and Federer in the same tournament, especially with Federer wanting to get a win over Baghdatis like he got a win over Berdych in Toronto.

Federer looked very smooth in his 6-4, 6-3 win over Baghdatis.  Baghdatis was probably not at his freshest while Federer had only played one full match (against Davydenko) to reach this point.  Federer wasn’t returning particularly well, but he was holding pretty easily, so it seemed only a matter of time before he won.  Federer had a stumble approach to the net to hit a winning volley en route to breaking Baghdatis in the first set.  In the second set, Baghdatis hit several shots into the net giving Federer break points which he secured to 5-3, then served it out to reach the finals.

Should Federer win over Mardy Fish, he would tie Andre Agassi for second most Masters 1000 titles win at 17.  Rafael Nadal leads this with 18, his last one at Madrid, with a win over Rafael Nadal.

Although Fish is playing good tennis and has a chance to push Roger Federer, Federer is likely to be favored, partly because he’s fresh, having only played two matches, partly because he’s playing reasonably well, and partly because he’s Roger Federer.

Since Roger has reached the finals and Djokovic lost in the quarterfinals, he will retain his number 2 ranking.  Djokovic will lose 420 points while Roger could lose 400 points if he doesn’t win.  In this “worse case” scenario, Federer would gain 20 points on top of his current 130 point lead to have a 150 point lead.  At this point, Djokovic could do nothing more.  Even were he to enter New Haven and win it, the rankings wouldn’t change until the first day of the US Open, and he’d still be seeded 3, just as Federer is seeded 3 in Cincinnati even though he is ranked 2.

After this week, the top 4 will take a week off and rest for the US Open.  Mardy Fish may head to New Haven, but if he were smart, he might choose to skip the tournament after his deep run at Cincinatti and use the week off to rest and prepare.  Marcos Baghdatis is also scheduled to play New Haven.

New Haven is in its last year of sponsorship with Pilot Pen.  Due to the economy, Pilot Pen won’t be the sponsor in 2011.  The tournament is seeking sponsorship for next year.