Now that most players have played two rounds (Isner being an exception), we can see how the players are faring. We’ll look at each section. The winner of each section is in the quarterfinals (there are 8 such sections).
Section 1
The big story in this section is Roger Federer’s struggles in the first two rounds. In round 1, Alejandro Falla hugged the baseline and took shots very early. He was that close to knocking Federer out of the tournament. Federer needed to save a 0-40 game in the third set and had to break Falla in the fourth set as Falla was serving for the match. In round 2, unheralded Bozoljac used his powerful backhand to again pressure Federer. Experience and mental toughness got Federer through these matches. Is Federer playing poorly or are his opponents playing well? Seems like a combination of both.
Federer finally plays an opponent that he’s familiar with. Arnaud Clement is someone that gave Federer trouble early in their career before Federer became a regular Slam winner. Of the 10 matches they’ve played, 8 of them were before 2005. They’ve only met twice since 2005. The most recent meeting was this year in Estoril, a fairly easy win for Federer. Fed has beaten Clement six times in a row, though four of the times were before 2005, and these victories date back to 2001.
Federer should have his easiest match so far.
In the other pairing, Feliciano Lopez plays Jurgen Melzer. Although these two have been on the tour a while, they didn’t start playing each other until 2005. Melzer leads 3-2, but Lopez won their last meeting. They’ve always had pretty close matches, but all their matches were on hard courts. This looks like a pick-em match. Both have had recent wins. Lopez made the semifinals of Queen’s. Melzer reached the semis of Roland Garros. It’s a different surface, but it seems to have boosted Melzer’s confidence.
Looks like Federer still has a pretty good shot at the quarterfinals.
Section 2
In this section, you have Berdych playing Istomin. Berdych got to the semis of the French Open. He’s a dangerous player that no one is talking about much. However, Istomin has been playing well as of late. He lost in the 2nd round of the French to Hewitt, but it took 5 sets. He lost in the 3rd round of Queen’s, but took a set off Nadal. He reached the semis of Eastbourne. Berdych didn’t play any warmup tournaments, but his game is always a tough one to handle.
Berdych has yet to drop a set. Istomin has gone five sets in his first two matches. To be fair, they were against Wawrinka, who had a relatively deep run last year at Wimbledon, and Rainer Schuettler who has played well lately and was in the semis of Wimbledon in 2008. Berdych may drop a set against Istomin. It should be Berdych’s first tough match. Credit Berdych with an easy win over Benjamin Becker who has also played well recently reaching the semis at Halle and the semis of the UNICEF Open.
The other 2 players are Hanescu and Brands. Brands had a relatively big upset over Davydenko though Davydenko has never done that well at Wimbledon. They’ve never played each other. Hanescu has done a relatively good job of improving his play this year. You see his name a fair bit. He’s about the only Romanian player on tour. Brands is a fairly young German and much lower ranked. Still, Hanescu is not ranked so high that a guy like Brands might not challenge him. Edge to Hanescu for experience.
Berdych looks like the man to beat out of Section 2, but given Berdych’s flaky past, it’s hard to say who comes out of this section. If it’s Berdych, he might make things interesting for Federer in the quarters should both make it that far.
Section 3
This has turned out to be one of the toughest sections in the draw. Still alive are Novak Djokovic who faces Albert Montanes. Montanes won Estoril over Federer, had a decent French Open. Djokovic finally had a good match against Taylor Dent which probably boosted his confidence. Montanes will probably be more like Rochus, getting balls back and pressuring Djokovic off the ground. Tentatively, you still have to pick Djokovic, because he’s just the better player. They’ve met 3 times, all on clay, with Djokovic winning all 3 meetings including in 2009.
Monfils-Hewitt is perhaps the toughest of the third round matches so far. Monfils leads their head to head 2-1. The one win for Hewitt came back in 2004, so that was practically when Monfils was turning pro. One match win for Monfils was on hard courts and one on clay. Hewitt has had the better results on grass. It’s a tough call, but I’ll give the edge to Hewitt since he’s played better on grass. Don’t be surprised if Monfils pulls the upset, however.
Djokovic has not lost to any players in this section except once to Hewitt. He has at least 3 wins against the remaining players. If Djokovic has a good win over Montanes and his health stays good, he should be able to reach the quarterfinals (again). Despite being a difficult section, Djokovic is the favored player. He just needs to play that way.
Section 4
This section seems to have opened up for Andy Roddick. Cilic was expected to be a tough player in this draw, but Cilic continues his losing ways on grass and didn’t even make it out of the first round. Ljubicic also didn’t fare well and lost in the first round. This left the only other seed, Philipp Kohlschreiber, the 29th seed as the sole seed to make it to the 3rd round. Kohlschreiber and Roddick have met only 3 times despite both players having been on the tour for years. Roddick has 2 wins over Kohlschreiber, but he beat Roddick in the 2008 Australian Open. 2008 wasn’t a happy year for Roddick, at least, not compared to 2009.
Gotta favor Roddick who has been playing pretty well as of late. Still, Kohlschreiber won’t make it easy for Roddick. Kohlschreiber played 5 sets against Gabashvili in the previous round, the guy that beat Roddick at the French. He also needed 4 sets over Starace. Roddick has had the easier route here. Expect Roddick to move past Kohlschreiber.
The other 2 players in this section are Yen-Hsun Lu and Florian Mayer. Lu is known as a hard worker. The two joined the tour together in 2001, are roughly the same rank. Mayer is a bit taller and heavier. They’ve never met. A toss-up. Gotta expect Roddick to beat either of these players.
Section 5
Now we head to the bottom half of the draw. Fognini is a bit surprising. He’s 23 years old and his most famous victory was just a few weeks ago over Gael Monfils, a match Monfils looked sure to win. Monfils wanted to play into darkness. Fognini complained, but was forced to when the umpire gave him a point penalty. Fognini nearly lost his serve and then Monfils was cramping and nearly lost his serve. They came back the next day and Fognini completed the upset. He lost in the next round to Wawrinka, then hasn’t played that well on grass.
But he comes to Wimbledon and gets Verdasco. People will now point to Verdasco playing a crazy amount of tennis heading into the French. He played Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Rome, Madrid, and Nice. He did well in all of these tournaments, but then lost to Almagro at the French. Despite Verdasco’s superb fitness, this was probably way too much tennis. Fognini caught Verdasco at a good time, won that match. He then worked hard to beat Michael Russell in 5 sets. Russell nearly had his chance, but couldn’t close the deal despite being up 2 sets to love.
Fognini now plays Julien Benneteau. Nicolas Mahut aside, the French have been doing pretty well at Wimbledon. The typical French player is one who can play well at net, has a good serve, is a bit flashy, and perhaps lacks a tough bruising baseline game. Tsonga and Simon are somewhat the exceptions. The French players that are still playing are: Benneteau, Tsonga, Monfils, Chardy, and Simon. They’re certainly faring much better than the Spaniards who seem to have exited Wimbledon en masse.
This ought to be a good match for Benneteau. On the one hand, Benneteau has already played 2 five setters, but then Fognini played a five setter and a four setter. A good opportunity for either player to make the 4th round. They’ve never met. Slight edge to Benneteau.
Who is Tobias Kamke? Not sure. He’s beaten two good clay courters in Garcia-Lopez (who had some decent grass results too) and Seppi. Kamke plays another Frenchman, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Gotta feel Kamke’s ride at Wimbledon ends here. Tsonga has been struggling a little, including a 5 setter against the talented Dolgopolov. But, he should be too talented for the young Kamke.
Benneteau actually has a 3-3 record against Tsonga. The important fact? Tsonga has won all their meetings at Slams including 2007 Wimbledon, 2009 French and US Open. Benneteau beat him in Marseille, and it was close. So, that match might prove tough for Tsonga, but Tsonga is the better big match player.
So Tsonga looks like the man out of this section.
Section 6
This section has Sam Querrey playing Xavier Malisse. The two have only played once, and that was at Queen’s. Querrey won in straight sets. Querrey has been focusing on doing better in Slams, and this is his best chance to get to the fourth round, which would be pretty respectable. The X man has been playing on the tour nearly a decade. He did well to upset Ferrero in the first round, but Ferrero hasn’t been playing well lately for some reason. He needed four sets to get past Julian Reister, a lucky loser. Querrey ought to be too much for Malisse. Querrey was pushed to four sets by Ivan Dodig, a qualifier, so that is of some concern. We’ll see if Querrey’s new positive thinking gets him past Malisse again.
Andy Murray takes on Gilles Simon. Simon had his one good year in 2008. Murray did too. They met 3 times that year and Murray won all three rather handily. Simon is coming off an injury. He got a walkover in the second round. His 2009 wasn’t great. Given all that, it seems Murray should win over Simon easily.
Of the top seeds, Murray has actually had the easiest time, not dropping a set. However, neither Hajek nor Nieminen have big games, which are the kinds that generally affect Murray. For that matter, Simon isn’t exactly a big hitter. He’s very steady, moves around well, serves decently, and has enough power to make himself trouble, but that was 2008. How is Simon in 2010? This could be a test of Murray’s form, or it could be pretty easy.
If Murray beats Simon, he might take on Sam Querrey. Murray has never lost to Querrey in 3 meetings. However, Querrey didn’t start to play well until the middle of 2009 and has continued to play well since then. Murray hasn’t played Querrey since 2008. Murray did handle John Isner at the Australian Open. Murray tends to play well against big servers. Querrey now moves better than he did and he’s beefed up his forehand. Murray is one of the best movers on tour, though he isn’t moving nearly as well as in Australia where he looked really good.
It looks like Murray should have a smooth road to the quarterfinals with Querrey being an interesting challenge. It will say a lot about Querrey’s game to see what happens here.
Section 7
With all the attention placed on the Isner-Mahut match, a first round match, mind you, a lot of media attention has been diverted from players like Robin Soderling. I put Soderling as one of the Wimbledon near-favorites, after Federer and Nadal, and perhaps just after Roddick and Murray. Soderling has learned to love the clay, but his game seems better suited to faster surfaces like hard courts and grass. Soderling has all the right elements to play well on grass. Big serve, huge groundstrokes, and good enough movement.
Soderling takes on talented Brazilian Thomaz Bellucci. Soderling would probably beat him on clay so it seems his chances are good of beating him on grass. Bellucci is a lefty which always creates some intrigue. Bellucci has had a pretty easy road so far. He beat fellow Brazilian, Ricardo Mello, in the first round, then took on qualifier Martin Fischer in the 2nd, needing two tiebreaks in the second and third set before winning the fourth handily. Gotta believe Soderling will mow through Bellucci. The two have never met.
If Soderling is sneaking through the draw, one of the other Spaniards that is still in the draw, the only one besides Feliciano Lopez and Rafa Nadal, is David Ferrer. Expected to do well at the French, he got a surprise losing to Jurgen Melzer. Ferrer has had a fairly easy draw. He met aging veteran, Nicolas Kiefer in the first round, and Frenchman, Florent Serra, in the second. He will face another Frenchman in Jeremy Chardy in the third round. Ferrer leads their head to head, 3-1, with 2 of the wins on clay and 1 on hard courts. However, each match has been pretty close.
Ferrer is probably the slight favorite, but Chardy might challenge him. Chardy did need 5 sets to beat Lacko, so he’ll be the less fresh of the two.
Soderling would probably meet Ferrer. Ferrer is one of those players, like Davydenko, that Soderling had good success against when Soderling was basically unknown. Many of his wins over Ferrer predate 2009. Ferrer has picked up his play this year, but Soderling would still be favored. Soderling has played Chardy once and beaten him in 3 sets.
Section 8
Due to Isner’s lengthy match with Mahut, they pushed back Youzhny’s match with Paul-Henri Mathieu. Mathieu used to be good enough that he was a go-to guy for the Davis Cup team. That was before Tsonga, Monfils, Simon all got good. And now, Mathieu is not nearly the player he was. Indeed, I haven’t seen much of Mathieu in quite some time. He’s pretty much lost in the first round of almost every tournament he’s played. It was probably very fortunate he played Giquel, a fellow Frenchman. Players tend to do better against their countryman especially if they are ranked lower somewhat.
Gotta believe Youzhny will be too much. Youzhny dominates their head-to-head with a 5-1 lead. After playing each other 3 times in 2002 and 2003, the two didn’t play each other until 2009 when they met 3 times with Youzhny winning 2 and Mathieu winning the other.
The other second round match that has yet to be completed is John Isner playing Thiemo de Bakker. de Bakker was one of those guys that was expected to have something of a breakout year. He won a few Challengers last year. With Isner still tired from his first round match, it seems de Bakker would have the upper hand. de Bakker, however, also needed 5 sets to win his match. That match also got pushed to a second day. It, too, went extra games, in this case, 16-14. But I suppose everything pales compared to 70-68. de Bakker also got today off to rest. The only good news for Isner was that he only played one hour today, wasn’t asked to play doubles, and should be rested for tomorrow. I’d rate this a toss-up. de Bakker might be the better player off the ground, but Isner is such a fighter. The two have never played each other.
Youzhny has a 1-0 lead over Isner. They played at Montreal in 2009. Isner’s game began to pick up some in the summer of 2009 which included a semifinal loss to Roddick in Washington DC and an upset of Roddick at the US Open. He won his first tournament in Adelaide just before the Australian Open and reached the finals of Memphis and Belgrade. Isner would be the miracle man if he got through his next two rounds. Youzhny is likely to be too much, but who knows?
Philipp Petzchner must be loving Ernests Gulbis right now. Not. Gulbis was in Section 8, expected to play Nadal in the 3rd round, if he got there. However, Gulbis pulled out shortly after the draw was made but before play began. Petzschner, who reached the semis at Halle, was elevated to 33rd seed and inserted into Gulbis’s spot. Petzschner has made the most of his new position, but needed 5 sets to get past Stephane Robert and 5 sets to get past Lukasz Kubot. He now has the honor of playing Rafa.
The two have only played twice, and of course, Rafa won both times, including a match back in 2003 when Rafa was just coming on tour and one in 2009.
I suppose Petzschner is playing pretty well given his performance in Halle. But, you still have to expect him to get past Petzschner.
Rafa looked like he had a tough draw, although it was Haase that gave him a challenge. Gulbis was expected to be here, and Petzschner is the easier opponent. I’d say Rafa in straight sets. Then, it’s Rafa against probably Youzhny. Youzhny used to give Rafa trouble, but it’s been a while. Youzhny’s ranking slipped some, but he did well after the US Open last year, and had decent results on clay as well. So, if Youzhny is to keep things interesting, it’s likely to be now. Isner would be a tough one for Rafa, but who knows how much that match took out of Isner. And if Mahut, a player ranked in the 100s, pushed him around rather handily, one has to imagine Rafa will do so even more easily.
So Rafa to get to the quarterfinals.
Possible Quarterfinals
So it looks like Federer-Berdych, Djokovic-Roddick, Tsonga-Murray, Soderling-Nadal.
Of these 8, the ones I’m least confident about is Djokovic. Section 3 is easily the toughest section in the draw with Montanes, Monfils and Hewitt still alive. Djokovic has winning records against everyone in his group. If he were more in-form, you’d have to pick him, hands-down.
Djokovic has lost the last two Slams because of conditioning/health. It happened in Australia where he had a commanding lead over Tsonga and then faded badly to lose in 5. It somewhat happened against Melzer, especially in the third set loss. He almost recovered, but let himself get pushed around by Melzer. You have to believe Djokovic will get his act together sometime and somehow push to the quarterfinals even against the toughest group left.
Most people would probably favor Hewitt to be the player from Section 3 to get through, but he got no favors by getting Monfils, a player that has beaten him in the past. Hewitt will have his hands full against Monfils. And if Monfils gets through, I kinda feel Monfils is even more flighty than Djokovic. Hewitt would be a tougher match-up for Djokovic.
I’m also not fully convinced Tomas Berdych will get through. Section 2 is the “easiest” section, in that the top player in that section, Nikolay Davydenko, is out. Berdych did play very well at the French. But if you look at Berdych’s win-loss record, he’s the top pro that gets upset by players ranked beneath him. Still, most players would trade places to be in his part of the draw with Istomin, Brands, and Hanescu as the other player. Section 2 is the most wide-open, though Berdych should be the class of this section.
Of the players remaining, Federer’s section looks the easiest, at least, for a player of Federer’s caliber. Well, Tsonga has the easiest section with Fognini, Benneteau, and Kamke. Tsonga is probably most concerned about Benneteau, actually. Then, Roddick is probably the next easiest section with Kohlschreiber, Lu and Mayer in his section.
Then maybe Berdych with Istomin, Brands, and Hanescu in that section. Then, Murray, Soderling, and Rafa probably have about the same difficulty of opponents, though each should be strongly favored to get through. Murray has a somewhat tough opponent in Sam Querrey. Soderling has a tough player in Ferrer (but a good record against him). Rafa might have to play Isner or Youzhny, but his section seems to not be that bad. Djokovic has the toughest remaining section.
So assuming those quarterfinalists, you’d look at Federer against, well, Roddick. Roddick has a pretty good win-loss record over Djokovic, including the last 3 times they met. They didn’t meet after the US Open because Roddick got injured in Shanghai, but that’s when Djokovic started playing well again. Since then, Djokovic hasn’t played well and Roddick has. So given that Djokovic will have to play to his potential to get to the quarters, I lean to Roddick.
I’d then say Murray would beat Tsonga. The two haven’t played since 2009 Montreal, and Murray was still playing pretty well then. Murray’s part of the draw seems to have gotten a bit tougher, but he has a good shot at the semifinals. Still, he would potentially have to get past Simon, Querrey, and Tsonga to reach the semifinals.
Soderling-Nadal has to be the most intriguing of the matchups. Nadal is healthy again. Soderling couldn’t handle Nadal after trying to bulldoze him with his groundstrokes. But Nadal on clay is not the same as Nadal on grass, and Soderling has more weapons at his disposal on grass. He should do nearly everything better than Haase did. Soderling serves well, hits hard on both sides, and this should make life very tough for Nadal.
Although it’s hard to pick against Nadal, I think Soderling has the game to do it. So I lean to him just a bit.
The semifinals could potentially be really exciting with Federer-Roddick and Soderling/Nadal-Murray. Still, I suppose there’s room for upsets. Last year, Roddick was a surprise semifinalist and finalist. Haas was also a surprise, upsetting Djokovic again (once in Halle, once at Wimbledon). There’s no one that jumps out as a Jurgen Melzer (who is still in the draw) this year, but there’s still a lot of tennis to be played. Indeed, Jurgen Melzer didn’t jump out as a Jurgen Melzer (who expected him to beat Ferrer?).
