Yes, yes, Rafa made the semis, but technically, he’s the number 5 player in the world.

And what a match.  Despite the best start of his career, Rafa would tell you that he’s not playing his best tennis, and he started off poorly against David Ferrer who was only too happy to take advantage.  Most of the first two sets was touch and go with Ferrer up a break, then even, then up a break, and even.  Every time he seemed ready to pull ahead, Nadal did enough to keep in the match.   Ferrer won the first set with a late break, and then was up an early break in the second.

Despite numerous unforced errors, Nadal did enough to stay in the match.  It’s times like this you realize how slim the margins are, how Ferrer’s confidence never seems strong enough, how Rafa’s belief in his game is just good enough.  In rallies that get extended with both players pushing each other, it seems Rafa is always the victor.  A pass that makes it in, a shot that clips the line instead of falling out, a lob that curls in.  Any number of missteps and Ferrer is in control of the match.

So when the second set went to tiebreak and the tiebreak went to Rafa, it seemed the air let out of Ferrer’s balloon, and Rafa once again rolled to victory, 6-0 in the third.

Andy Murray was looking to followup his late night victory over Gilles Simon with a win over Tomas Berdych.  The two have played each other even throughout their career, with the tall Czech’s power game often nullifying the more defensive posture of the Scot.  Murray certainly had plenty of chances to win either set, but could never quite convert on enough of the break points he set up for himself.  Despite the lack of any titles this year, Berdych has played a lot more solid lately.  His biggest improvement has been his defense, his ability to play out extended rallies and not go for winners quite so early.  This may be a page taken out of the del Potro book who, for my money, has sometimes played too defensively.

One big downside to Murray’s game on clay is his serve, which doesn’t let him win too many free points, even if he tends to win a good percentage of them.  Murray still occasionally struggles on the surface because he doesn’t hit with a ton of topspin and because, historically, he doesn’t go after his shots, so despite a year and a half under the Lendl tutelage, he never quite feels free to just go corner to corner with extreme confidence.  You feel it’s a drill he’s been working on, hour after hour, and that it’s the drill practice that’s keeping shots in, not the utter belief he can find the corners when he needs to like Rafa does (doesn’t hurt that Rafa generates so much spin).

Last year, Murray tried to scale his preparation for the French.  He didn’t perform particularly well heading to the French, but he reached the quarters and lost to Ferrer, which is about as good as one could hope for at the French with his draw.

Murray blamed some of his woes on a late night match with Simon, and that both of his matches were played at night under the lights where the ball didn’t bounce as high, and, of course, due the altitude, the balls were flying faster than, say, at Rome.  Murray’s preparation, it seems, had been for daytime weather and higher bounces.  Perhaps Roger Federer doesn’t look at Madrid as preparing him for the French, as he admitted in an interview after his loss to Nishikori, and treats it as a tournament worth winning on its own right, but Murray, with only one Slam, does look at the French as a worthy goal, even if, with Rafa and Djokovic still playing well, his chances are not quite as good as they would be on grass.

The late evening match pitted Stan Wawrinka against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, two players that always seem to play each other quite even.  Both happen to speak French so they get along quite well.  It’s hard to believe, but Wawrinka has been playing pro tennis for about a decade.  As long ago as 2008, Wawrinka had reached number 10 in the world with a deep run in Rome.  Since then, his career has been up and down, perhaps resembling that of Berdych, who also found success early on, but played erratic tennis, and only in the past 2-3 years, has steadied his game enough to play good top ten tennis.

Wawrinka isn’t quite there yet, but he started off strong pushing Djokovic to his only 5 set match at the Australian Open, and finally winning a title last week in Portugal.  Wawrinka wants to show that he can play solid tennis for two weeks in a row.  No one will be surprised if Wawrinka loses early in Rome to give him time to rest for Roland Garros and not go in playing too many matches.  But, for now, he’ll fight his way through.

Wawrinka dominated the first set against Tsonga, but the second set was a much tighter affair.  Tsonga played some great shots in the second set tiebreak to fend off match points.  Tsonga had some leads in the tiebreak, but Wawrinka came back, and then Tsonga hung tough.  Finally, Tsonga took the tiebreak, and Wawrinka had to play one more set.  Wawrinka, who has been working with Magnus Norman, former coach of Robin Soderling, in the past month, and known for helping Soderling keep a positive mental outlook, is now trying to do the same with the Swiss number 2, and Wawrinka’s latest results have shown a consistency that seemed missing from his game.

Wawrinka will play Berdych in one semi of two big hitters while Rafa will taken on relatively unheralded Pablo Andujar who beat Nishikori in straight sets.  Andujar is certainly more comfortable on clay, but he’s the less recognizable name compared to Nishikori.  What’s really surprising is how well Nishikori has played on clay given that fast courts have always been his best surface.

Alas, unless Andujar has some magic playing Rafa (and he’s older than Rafa by maybe 6 months), Rafa is strongly favored to reach another final, and favored to win the title regardless of who he meets there.  Rafa, if he wins the title, will be within 30 pts of number 4, but he needs Ferrer to falter some as he’s the defending champ at Rome.  Ferrer made the semis last year, so if he loses in the quarters and Rafa wins again, he should make up the difference.