Sometimes you think this thing is rigged.   This is such a weird draw.

Last night, ESPN Classic decided to show Isner-Mahut in its entirety.  They had devoted 9 hours to this.  Last year, they showed Isner-Mahut in its entirety but clipped out commentary and any downtime between serves and compressed the match to about 3 hours.  Not so, last night.  Perhaps this fateful telecast had the bouncing balls of the Wimbledon draw (or whatever method they use) recalling the match that would not end.  The balls bounced to the same opening round as last year.

Isner vs. Mahut.

Again.

Last year, Mahut had to go through three rounds of qualifying.  This year, his rank is high enough so he doesn’t have to qualify.  Last year, they said “there would never be another match like Isner-Mahut” ever again.  I agree.  No way what happens last time happens again. I can see this going 4 sets or less.  Here’s the deal.  Isner and Querrey had great 2010s which partly coincided with bad 2010 for the very top guys except Nadal who had a great year.  Since then Isner’s rank has slipped and obviously Mahut’s rank has risen which means he has an outside shot of beating Isner.  Bad draw for the two of them, but better for Mahut this year, I think.

Nadal opens up with Michael Russell.  Russell played a very famous French Open match as he nearly eliminated Gustavo Kuerten.  Kuerten famously drew a heart in the clay when he won that match.  Russell became an asterisk doomed to make Tennix Express commercials.  Russell might give Nadal a tussle, but expect Nadal to get through.  At least Nadal tends to be most vulnerable in early rounds.  Russell lost to Gilles Simon in the opening round of the French this year, but did take a set off the slight Frenchman.

Raonic is in Nadal’s section of the draw.  However, he has to get past a few crafty veterans including Tommy Haas who reached the semis of Wimbledon in 2009 and Gilles Muller who made a modest run at the US Open a few years ago.  Haas is admittedly coming back from injury which derailed him for months.  Still, grass is friendly to this man’s game.  Raonic has to show he can play with these kind of guys and grass ought to be very friendly for his game.

Nadal’s concern may be Juan Martin del Potro in the fourth round who is in Section 2 (Nadal is in Section 1).  del Potro’s section is manageable with Rochus, Gil, and Simon in his group.  Simon would be the toughest opponent, but the Simon that was in the top ten in 2008 is not quite back yet.  The French tend to do better on faster surfaces, but Simon likes hard courts more.  Having said that, del Potro is in the same boat preferring hard courts or clay over grass.  Still, with Delpo’s huge serve, should the two meet, Delpo should have the advantage.

Mardy Fish is in Section 3 and has a tough opening two rounds.  He plays Marcel Granollers who is more adept at clay but is still a solid player.  He would then play the winner of Kohlschreiber and Istomin.  Istomin was tougher last year.  Kohlschreiber recently won Halle when his opponent retired in the second set.  Fish could beat these opponents, but this is not a nice draw.

Robin Haase is in this section too.  He pushed Rafa to 5 sets last year.  He’s played reasomably well.  However, he has to get past Verdasco in this group.  Grass isn’t Verdasco’s favorite surface, but he has a big serve.  Verdasco has regressed since his big day against Nadal in the semi of the Australian Open.  His game slipped last summer when he played too much tennis prior to the French, lost a bit early (to Almagro) and hasn’t been the same player since.

Fish’s section has an amusing first round match, again showing the weirdness of this draw.  Who were the two guys that beat Andy Murray in the hardcourt Masters earlier this year.  If you are a tennis addict, you know it’s Donald Young (Jr) and Alex Bomogolov (Jr).  Both are Americans.  Both had triple digit rankings when they played Murray.  Both are Juniors.  Both caught Murray in a funk and won.  They’re playing each other.  Berdych is also in Fish’s section.  He probably can’t duplicate his 2010 run so may lose much earlier this year.

Murray is in a decent section (Section 3).  This puts him in Nadal’s section again.  He might face Marin Cilic in the third round.  Cilic hasn’t played well in a long time.  Grass also isn’t his best surface.  Cilic probably wishes he were facing Janko Tipsarevic who put him as the number 2 guy that gives him the most trouble.  Cilic did beat Murray a few years ago at the US Open and Murray did return the favor at the 2010 Australian Open, but Cilic’s star was on the rise then.  His game is a bit like Berdych without the flash, but being a flatter hitter, he’s more prone to errors.  Still, Cilic is just the kind of player that could bother Murray.  Cilic does have to get past veteran Ivan Ljubicic who also has a big game.  Both are Croatian so they should know each other well.

Gasquet opens up with Giraldo of Columbia.  Last year, while the marathon match of Isner-Mahut was being played, there was a smaller marathon going on between Thiemo de Bakker and Santiago Giraldo.  de Bakker would ultimately win this match and play a very out of sorts Isner in the second round and win handily.  Gasquet can play grass and should be favored.

The rest of that section is qualifiers or lucky losers except for Stan Wawrinka playing Potito Starace.

In Section 4, Andy Roddick, seeded 8 just happens to be with Gael Monfils seeded 9th.  Tipsarevic is the lucky guy to have to meet Dr. Ivo Karlovic.  Karlovic can be hit or miss at Wimbledon.  His big serve should mean he can go a few rounds, but he has lost early too.  In the years he’s lost, he usually loses in a marathon match in 5 sets.  In years he wins, he usually eventually loses to Roger Federer.  Karlovic however is not in that section of the draw.  Karlovic has lost recently to tall guys like himself (Kevin Anderson and Juan Martin del Potro).  Tipsarevic isn’t in this category.

Another tough opening match is Berrer vs. Feliciano Lopez.  Berrer did OK on grass recently.  He was Mr. Nice Guy to Andy Murray.  Lopez can play on grass too.  He reached the semis of Queen’s last year losing to Mardy Fish.

Roddick’s draw is not SO bad.  There are some big servers in there, but no one outside of Gael Monfils that seems so threatening.  Even so, Roddick hasn’t played that much.  He did reach the semis of Queen’s so the practice seems to have helped.

Let’s head to Section 5 in the bottom half of the draw (Djokovic and Federer are again in the same half).

Ferrer and Tsonga are in this section.  Tsonga recently made the finals of Queen’s.  This marks the return of Fernando Gonzalez to Slam play.  He’s been pretty much out for over a year.  One would imagine that he wouldn’t get too far.  He had a great year in 2009, but 2010 wasn’t so good to him.

In Section 6, Almagro and Federer are the top seeds.  Isner-Mahut is in this section too (on Almagro’s side).  Isner has a good change to go deep.  Federer has a pretty easy draw.  Mannarino pushed James Ward to three sets back in Queen’s but Ward isn’t Federer.  Fed should be highly favored to reach the quarters from his section.  He may meet old rival David Nalbandian in the third round.

Soderling opens up against Petzschner in the opening round.   Petzschner was the guy who pushed Nadal to 5 sets last year and complained when Nadal took an injury timeout.  He also reached the finals of Halle this year and semis of Halle the year before. However, he did retire due to some injury in the finals of Halle.  If he’s playing well, he might give Soderling some trouble.

Another interesting opening round is Nishikori vs. Hewitt.  Hewitt has seen better days.  Nishikori is in the semis of Eastbourne.  The winner of that match takes on the winner of Soderling-Petzschner.

Davydenko, Mayer, and Melzer are in this section.  Davydenko lost early in the French.  He needs to get his head and game together if he wants to move on a few rounds on his least favorite surface.

Djokovic opens up against a tough Frenchman, Jeremy Chardy.  He could play tall Kevin Anderson in the second round.  Llodra and Troicki are in this section too.  James Ward, who reached the semis of Queen’s plays a seed right off the bat in Llodra.  Llodra lost to Roddick last year when Roddick served and volleyed to outwit the serve and volleying Frenchman.

The top two seeds have their hands full with interesting draws!