The year-end championship has gone through a lot of changes over the years.  Initially, it was a round-robin event, but back in 1981, there was some gamesmanship by Ivan Lendl.  Bjorn Borg had won enough in his group to qualify for the semifinals, so he took some strategic losses.  This left the unheralded Gene Mayer as the winner of that group.

Meanwhile, Lendl was to face Connors, and he knew the results of the other group.  Were he to beat Connors–not a sure thing back in 1981, he would face Borg in the semis, who was the top player.  Were he to lose, he would face Gene Mayer, a decidedly easier opponent.  Lendl opted to serve-and-volley, and basically tank the match.  Lendl would go on to beat Mayer, and Borg would beat Connors.  Borg won the championship, but Lendl made it to the finals.

The powers that be decided to change the format to a single elimination, and even expanded to 12 players.  However, the matches didn’t seem more interesting in this format.

In 1990, the ATP created a separate year-end championship.  Prior to that, ITF, which controls the Slams ran the Masters event.  They created their own Grand Slam Cup.  In 1999, the two sides finally agreed to re-unite the two championships to create the Masters Cup which moved around from Portugal to Australia to China to the US and back to China before settling on London for the last few years.  London has the advantage of being physically close to Paris, so travel between the two venues is not too burdensome to the players.

The current format is a round robin with two groups of 4 each.  The number 1 and 2 seeds are put in two different groups, then 3 and 4 (randomly), then 5 and 6 (randomly), then 7 and 8 (randomly).

Group A is, by far, the toughest of the two groups with Djokovic, Murray, Berdych, and Tsonga.  In particular, Djokovic is in a group where every player has beaten him before (Murray at this year’s US Open, Berdych at Wimbledon in 2010, Tsonga at the Australian Open 2010).  Berdych and Tsonga are so dangerous that they make life tough for anyone.

Group B is basically great for Federer.  In it are Federer, Ferrer, del Potro, and Tipsarevic.  Federer has never lost to Tipsarevic and Ferrer.  He has lost a handful of times to del Potro, and pretty much dominated him last year and this year, and only narrowly lost to him in Basel.  del Potro lost to a handful of players this year including Federer numerous times, but also Ferrer.  He’s looking to overcome Ferrer, a tenacious player that, nonetheless, del Potro has the talent to take on.  Ferrer and Tipsarevic played a monster match in the quarterfinals of the US Open, one where Tipsarevic looked like he would take control, but ultimately, the fight of Ferrer could not be denied.  Ferrer is coming off his first Masters 1000 event which should leave him pretty giddy.

The matches open on Monday.  Traditionally, because the round robins require 6 days to play, it starts on a Sunday, so semis can be played on a Saturday, and the finals on a Sunday.  But due to Paris and London being placed back-to-back this year (last year, there was a rest week between the two), the Sunday final in Paris forced a Monday start in London.

Up first is Andy Murray against Tomas Berdych.  The last time they met was in the US Open semifinals.  It certainly didn’t hurt that Murray dealt with the wind better than Berdych, because Berdych had been playing red-hot when upsetting Federer.  Berdych is a rhythm player, one that seeks to use his serve and his forehand to dominate the ground.  Murray will want to take advantage of Berdych’s weakness which is his court coverage.  Players like Nishikori have beaten Berdych by making Berdych run.

Berdych recently lost to Gilles Simon who took to attacking the Berdych backhand and coming to net.  However, Berdych hit numerous errors in this match, and did not really get to assert himself as much as he should have.  Murray should have the slight edge, but it just depends on how well Berdych comes out to play.

In the second match of the day, Novak Djokovic takes on Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.  Tsonga lost to David Ferrer in Paris rather tamely, but more than likely, Tsonga was already looking forward to London and performing well there.

Djokovic lost early as well, to Sam Querrey, but again, Djokovic was probably looking to play well in London and not waste his effort winning Paris.

Djokovic ought to be more of a favorite than Murray.  He’s been playing excellent tennis since the US Open.  He won Beijing and he won Shanghai.  The Beijing win was over Tsonga, so this will be a replay of that.  Tsonga recently hired a coach after going for more than a year without a coach.  He picked up Roger Rasheed who had previously coached Gael Monfils.

On Tuesday, Federer plays Tipsarevic.  Tipsy, of course, was famous for pushing Federer to five sets at the Australian Open a few years ago.  He’s never beaten Federer, and one imagines, that he won’t be able to do so now, short of Federer having a bad week.  Federer decided not to play Paris to rest up.  The question is whether a week was enough time for him to recover.  Fed likes to keep his cards close to his vest, so he rarely indicates he has a problem until after he’s lost.  Even so, in interviews, Federer says he’s stayed healthier than usual this year.

In the second match, del Potro will take on Ferrer.  This could prove intriguing.  del Potro lost to Llodra in Paris, but again, it’s hard to say what that means.  In any case, Llodra is such a singular player, and no one in London plays quite like him.  He takes on Ferrer who has given del Potro fits this year.  He beat him at Wimbledon and at Miami this year, not exactly the surfaces you’d expect him to beat del Potro.  del Potro recently won Basel over Federer while Ferrer recently won Paris.  One wonders if Ferrer will be in good enough physical shape to play though he did win he finals in Paris in straight sets, so he shouldn’t be too exhausted.

Normally, I’d favor Ferrer, but I wonder if so many matches doesn’t hurt his chances.

Regardless of who wins, Djokovic will end the year as number 1.  He has a 2000 point lead over Federer, so even a Federer win can’t close that gap.